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On 24 March 2026, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI), a member centre of the Africa Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ANAPRI), convened a high-level stakeholder dialogue in Lusaka to examine Zambia’s agricultural trade policy environment at a critical moment for the country’s food system. The convening, held under the theme Zambia’s Agricultural Trade in the AfCFTA Era: A Dialogue on Agricultural Trade Policy Predictability and Market Confidence, brought together policymakers, private sector actors, farmer organisations, and regional partners to reflect on how Zambia can better align domestic market policies with emerging regional trade opportunities.
The discussions were anchored in recent production trends. After maize output fell to about 1.5 million metric tonnes during the 2023 to 2024 drought, the 2024 to 2025 season delivered a bumper harvest of roughly 3.7 million metric tonnes. Soybean production also rebounded strongly, rising from 169,000 metric tonnes to 289,000 metric tonnes. With favourable rainfall and expanded production areas, Zambia is expected to maintain strong output in the coming seasons. However, the dialogue highlighted that strong production alone does not guarantee strong market performance. The 2025 to 2026 marketing season has been marked by limited private sector participation and constrained export flows. Government procurement through the Food Reserve Agency has played a dominant role in the maize market, with the agency holding roughly 79 percent of available stocks by December 2025. While government intervention is important for safeguarding the Strategic Grain Reserve, participants noted that heavy market participation can unintentionally crowd out private sector traders and reduce market liquidity.
Policy unpredictability emerged as another major concern. Export restrictions, including a 10 percent export tax and delays in export authorisations, have weakened Zambia’s competitiveness in regional markets. Yet demand for maize remains strong across neighbouring countries. Market comparisons presented during the dialogue showed significantly higher maize prices in regional markets such as Lubumbashi and Nairobi than in Lusaka, highlighting the opportunity for Zambia to expand exports if policy conditions allow.
The soybean sector offers another example of untapped potential. Zambia’s soybean industry is positioned to play a central role in agricultural transformation, given rising domestic demand and strong regional markets. However, production levels remain well below potential. Smallholder yields remain low compared with commercial farms, and the country’s crushing industry is operating far below its installed capacity of nearly one million metric tonnes per year.
Participants emphasised that improving access to inputs, strengthening research and development, and promoting more predictable trade policies would be critical for unlocking growth in the soybean value chain. Proposed measures include introducing improved input packages for smallholder farmers and encouraging investment in improved seed varieties.
The dialogue also highlighted external risks affecting agricultural markets. Presentations noted that disruptions in global fertiliser supply chains have pushed fertiliser prices upward, partly due to geopolitical tensions affecting key shipping routes. For Zambia, which imports a large share of its fertiliser requirements, these developments reinforce the need to strengthen domestic fertiliser production and reduce exposure to global supply shocks.
Across the discussions, it was noted that Zambia’s private sector has both the capacity and the willingness to invest in aggregation, storage, processing, and export logistics. However, these investments depend on a stable and predictable policy environment. When export policies change unexpectedly, market actors become reluctant to commit resources to long term investments. Stakeholders also emphasised Zambia’s strategic position within regional trade frameworks. With borders shared with eight neighbouring countries, several of which regularly face grain deficits, Zambia has the potential to serve as a key supplier within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Unlocking this opportunity will require policies that allow surplus production to move efficiently across borders while safeguarding national food security objectives.
The dialogue produced several practical recommendations. In the immediate term, participants emphasised the need to improve the flow of maize stocks through the market ahead of the next harvest by accelerating export approvals and reducing policy uncertainty. In the medium term, stakeholders highlighted the importance of strengthening the soybean value chain through improved input support, expanded research, and policies that encourage greater private sector participation in processing and trade. It was noted that Zambia has demonstrated its capacity to produce agricultural surpluses even in the face of climatic shocks. The next step is ensuring that market systems are able to absorb this production efficiently and connect farmers to regional demand. By strengthening policy predictability, encouraging private sector participation, and aligning domestic market policies with regional trade opportunities, Zambia can position itself to benefit more fully from its agricultural potential in the AfCFTA era.
This convening forms part of a broader effort by ANAPRI to support evidence-informed policy discussions that strengthen agricultural trade across Africa.