CROWDING IN OR CROWDING OUT? RETHINKING FERTILISER SUBSIDIES FOR AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION

For millions of African farmers, the value of a fertiliser subsidy is ultimately determined by practical questions: does the fertiliser arrive on time, does it reach the farmer who needs it, does it improve productivity, and does the system make it easier or harder for farmers to eventually access inputs through functioning markets?

ZAMBIA HAS THE MAIZE AND SOYBEAN; WHAT IT NEEDS NOW IS TRADE PREDICTABILITY 

Zambia has long been described as a country with the potential to become a regional food basket. It has land, water, farmers, processors, and a strategic location near major food-deficit markets. In good seasons, the country can produce sizable maize surpluses. Its soybean sector is also increasingly important, not only for grain exports, but also for feed, edible oil, livestock value chains and agro-processing. 

TANZANIA’S AGRICULTURAL TRADE PROBLEM IS NOT PRODUCTION; IT IS POLICY UNCERTAINTY 

Tanzania has the ingredients of a strong agricultural trading nation. It has land, diverse agro-ecological zones, a large farming population, access to regional markets, and strategic links to the East African Community, SADC, COMESA and AfCFTA. Agriculture contributes significantly to the economy and employs a large share of the population. Its exports include cashew nuts, coffee, cotton, tobacco, tea, cloves, horticulture and sesame, while staples such as maize and rice remain critical for regional food markets.