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The real trade story is happening across borders
Between February and April 2026, ANAPRI centres convened a series of country-level consultations on agricultural trade barriers in Zambia, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, Kenya and Ghana. The message from these dialogues was remarkably consistent: Africa’s food markets are already deeply connected across borders, but our policies still behave as if food systems stop at national boundaries.
Maize moves from surplus zones to deficit zones. Livestock crosses from Sahelian countries into coastal markets. Eggs, dairy, soybeans, rice, beans, horticulture and processed foods all move through regional corridors. Traders respond to price gaps, seasonal shortages, exchange rates and consumer demand. In practice, African food markets are regional. Yet the rules that govern them are often national, fragmented, unpredictable and poorly coordinated.
This mismatch is now one of the biggest obstacles to agricultural transformation on the continent.
Food security cannot be built on panic measures
Across the six country cases, one pattern stands out: governments often restrict trade in the name of food security, but the way these restrictions are implemented can weaken the very food systems they are meant to protect. Export bans, import restrictions, sudden permit changes, border delays, repeated testing, local levies and unclear standards may appear to offer short-term control. But they often produce long-term damage.
They reduce farmer incentives. They discourage traders from investing in formal markets. They raise costs for processors and consumers. They push trade into informal channels. They weaken trust between neighbouring countries. And, in some cases, they trigger retaliation.
This does not mean food security concerns are illegitimate. They are real. Governments must protect consumers during droughts, price spikes and supply shocks. But the lesson from the country cases is that food security cannot be secured through panic measures alone. It requires predictable rules, shared data, functioning reserves, targeted safety nets and regional coordination.
Zambia and Tanzania show the cost of uncertainty
In Zambia, the challenge is not a lack of production potential. The country has strong maize and soybean capacity and sits near major regional markets. But uncertainty around export rules, delayed permits, state involvement in grain markets, storage shortages and logistics costs continue to undermine trader confidence. Regional buyers want reliable suppliers. If Zambia cannot supply predictably, those buyers will turn elsewhere.
In Tanzania, stakeholders raised similar concerns. Sudden export bans, discretionary permits, overlapping regulations, multiple levies and high compliance costs make formal trade expensive and uncertain. Traders and farmers respond rationally: they reduce formal participation, pass costs to consumers, or shift into informal cross-border trade.
Malawi and Kenya show that restrictions often backfire
Malawi offers perhaps the clearest warning. Its “stop-go” trade policy—especially around maize—has inflated transaction costs, pushed trade underground and strained relations with neighbours. The evidence from Malawi suggests that broad trade restrictions may offer some short-term relief, but excessive restrictions reduce exports, weaken household welfare and undermine economic growth.
Kenya shows the other side of the food security equation. As a net importer of some food products, Kenya depends on regional markets to stabilise supply. The egg case is instructive. Restrictions on Ugandan eggs were meant to protect local producers, but they did not solve the underlying problem of high feed costs and limited domestic supply. Instead, prices rose, formal trade collapsed, and businesses such as bakeries and pastry shops faced higher input costs.
Uganda and Ghana show that competitiveness is more than market access
Uganda’s case highlights another dimension: competitiveness. The country has strong potential to supply regional and global markets, but weak logistics, limited value addition, non-tariff barriers, finance constraints and emerging global standards limit its ability to capture more value. Uganda’s challenge is not just to produce more, but to process more, certify more, trace more and move goods more efficiently.
Ghana reminds us that there are two distinct agricultural trade systems operating side by side. Cocoa and cashew are relatively structured and formal. But maize, livestock and horticulture move through more fragmented regional food corridors. Ghana’s food markets are regional in practice, yet policy does not fully reflect this reality. Large regional price gaps show that food is not moving as efficiently as it should from surplus to deficit areas.
Together, these cases point to a simple conclusion: Africa cannot build resilient food systems country by country alone. The binding constraints are regional. So the solutions must also be regional.
Tariffs matter, but they are no longer the whole story
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Regional Economic Communities and the African Union have an important opportunity to shift Africa’s agricultural trade agenda from commitments to implementation. Tariff reduction matters, but tariffs are no longer the only problem. In many cases, the real obstacles are non-tariff barriers, poor coordination, weak data, high logistics costs, standards disputes and policy unpredictability.
The first priority should be rules-based agricultural trade measures. Countries need clear criteria for when export or import restrictions can be used. Emergency measures should be based on evidence, notified regionally and limited in time. A country facing a real food security crisis must retain policy space, but that policy space should be transparent and predictable.
Shared data can prevent bad policy decisions
The second priority is regional food balance and early warning systems. Too many trade decisions are made without credible shared data on production, stocks, prices, deficits and trade flows. If countries had better regional food balance sheets, many panic restrictions could be avoided. Shared information can reduce suspicion and support better planning.
The third priority is stronger enforcement of non-tariff barrier commitments. Africa already has mechanisms for reporting NTBs, but reporting is not enough. There must be timelines, public dashboards, escalation procedures and accountability for unresolved barriers.
The next frontier is practical trade facilitation
Fourth, digital trade systems must speak to each other. Single windows, customs platforms, Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) certificates, cargo tracking systems and certificates of origin need to be interoperable across borders. Digital systems can reduce paperwork, delays and corruption, but only if agencies coordinate and traders can use them easily.
Fifth, Africa needs harmonized standards and SPS systems. Repeated testing and inconsistent standards are costly and often become disguised protectionism. Mutual recognition, regional laboratory accreditation and risk-based inspections can reduce unnecessary disputes while still protecting consumers.
Sixth, regional cooperation must invest in agricultural corridors. Food does not move through policy documents; it moves through roads, ports, border posts, storage facilities, cold chains, laboratories, railways and lake transport. Commodity-specific corridors for maize, livestock, dairy, horticulture and oilseeds should be treated as strategic infrastructure.
Markets need finance, not just declarations
Seventh, trade finance and structured markets must be strengthened. Farmers, traders and processors cannot use regional market opportunities without working capital, warehouse receipts, commodity exchanges, export guarantees and affordable finance.
Finally, policy dialogue must include the people who actually move food: farmers, traders, processors, transporters, financiers and researchers. Too often, trade measures are designed without those who understand the market consequences.
The missing ingredient is predictability
Africa’s food markets are already regional. The question is whether policy will continue to lag behind reality, or whether the AfCFTA, RECs and national governments will build the rules, systems and infrastructure needed to make regional trade work.
The continent does not lack demand. It does not lack traders. It does not lack farmers. What it lacks is predictability.
And without predictability, Africa’s agricultural potential will remain trapped between surplus and shortage, promise and frustration.
Read the Regional Synthesis Brief for a consolidated view of findings across the six countries.